Final Mexico Bean Harvest Review Indicates Smaller Crop 2017 Spring – Summer Cycle

USDBC completed its final review of the Mexican Spring/Summer bean crop last month and projects further decreases in total Spring/summer harvest as well as overall production numbers. In the previous harvest survey, USDBC projected total production of 755,352 MT for the spring/summer cycle, 15.8% less than the production estimated by SAGARPA-SIAP. As the harvesting progressed in the last weeks, we were able to verify the lower yields and lower quality due to previously reported weather events that affected production areas in Chihuahua, Durango and Zacatecas. Lack of precipitation in September resulted in a lower number of grains per pod in Chihuahua and damaged 24,800 hectares in San Luis Potosi.

USDBC projects the Mexican Spring-Summer bean production will reach 725,218 MT, 4.0% less than estimated in our September report and a decrease of 19.2% from the SAGARPA-SIAP 2017 estimate. Overall, we project total production in the 2017 agricultural year will be 982,900 MT, 3% less than our September estimate and 18% less than SAGARPA-SIAP estimate for the 2017 agricultural year. Quality issues with Mexican beans (perforated grains, spotted beans, and mold) and lower yields, were caused by excess moisture and high temperatures. Due to the lower quality of the Mexican crop and lower prices of U.S. dry beans, it is expected that Mexican bean prices will decline in the November 2017 – February 2018 period. The largest Mexican bean trading companies are expecting competitive prices that contribute to increased bean consumption and sales. After March 2018, it is expected that prices will
begin an upward trend, especially Black beans.