SECOND ASSESSMENT CONFIRMS SHORT CROP IN MEXICO

October 21, 2019
Our re-survey of the Mexican 2019 Spring-Summer dry bean crop confirmed definitively that the bean planting surface was reduced as a result of the drought from June-August, the critical Estimated Spring Summer Productiongrowing period. As a result, production is estimated at 417,101 MT, 54% less than SIAP’s (Mexican agricultural data Secretariat) estimates and 52.5% less than the average in the last seven Spring-Summer cycles.
Total production for the the two dry bean crops of the 2019 agricultural year is expected at reach 700,298 MT, 43% short of SIAP’s projections and 38% below average production levels. Additionally, the estimated bean production, is not enough to trigger the use of the government’s dry bean support program.
As a result of the short crop we expect the following: use of carry over inventories, reliance on imports from the U.S., and if needed, use of the non NAFTA import quotas up to 100,000 MT. However, we do want to point out a recent trend line that shows a decline in per person Source:  USDBC harvest reportconsumption of dry beans, which is likely impacting sales. This is something USDBC will look to focus on in the 2020 program year. Mexico’s dry bean imports at the end of August 2019, were 39% lower vs. the same month last year and 23% less than 2010-2018 average imports of 135 thousand MT/year. We are keeping a close eye on Mexican demand for dry beans and import levels and while we expect there may be a decline in total dry bean imports to Mexico, the U.S. can still capture the dominant market share, this will continue to be our goal for 2020.
Full report available on the members’ only website.
Posted in: Bean Bulletin